Spain Held France to 0.3 xG. Tonight England Face Argentina.

Spain Held France to 0.3 xG. Tonight England Face Argentina.
Spain beat France 2-0 in Dallas on Tuesday.

Oyarzabal converted a penalty in the 22nd minute after Yamal drew the foul in the box. Porro added a second in the 58th with a simple give-and-go from Olmo. France had three shots on target from an xG total of 0.3.

That is a very small number for a team with Mbappé, Olise, Dembélé and Doué in the same starting lineup.


What Spain Did That France Could Not Counter
Before the game, the question was whether France would be the first team to genuinely pressure Spain in this tournament.

They were not.

Two things undid France. First, Yamal moved constantly and pulled defensive shape out of position throughout the match. Second, Saliba went off with what appeared to be a back injury shortly after Spain took the lead — and the French backline, previously the team's strongest component, became noticeably less secure without him.

Porro's second goal came from a straightforward give-and-go. A Spain backline at full strength would likely have organised better. Conceding from a defensive lapse after losing a key player is the kind of goal that hurts most.

Mbappé produced zero shots on target from 10 attempts. An xG of 0.3 for the entire French attack tells you Spain did not get lucky. They prepared specifically for what France would try to do.


What Spain Bring to the Final
One goal conceded in seven games. The only team to score against them was Belgium in the quarter-finals. Yamal, who turned 19 the day before this match, has been described by most observers as the tournament's outstanding individual, though no official award has been announced.

Spain play their system and trust it completely. That combination has not failed them once in 2026.


Tonight — England vs Argentina
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. July 15. The winner meets Spain in the final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium, New York.

England

Jude Bellingham has six goals in this tournament, including two against Norway in the quarter-finals — an equaliser and a winner in extra time. He is 22 years old and playing the best football of his career at the moment it matters most.

Harry Kane has scored consistently throughout but is no longer the player opposing teams are primarily designing their plans around. That may help him.

Thomas Tuchel has built an England side that is hard to beat. They have not played the tournament's most attractive football, but they have consistently made the right decision in difficult moments.

Argentina

Messi did not score against Switzerland in the quarter-finals, but he assisted Romero's goal against Egypt and remains the player every opponent's defensive structure is built around, even when he is not directly involved in possession.

Argentina have won every knockout match while trailing at some stage. They beat Switzerland in extra time after conceding an equaliser. They needed stoppage-time goals against Egypt. They are a defending champion that does not concede defeat early.

What is worth noting is that Argentina have not once controlled a knockout match from start to finish. They win them in the final stages, not in the opening period. That is a particular kind of resilience that is difficult to prepare for.

What Will Decide It

If England defend as Tuchel has drilled them, and Bellingham performs as he did against Norway, they are as likely as not to reach the final.

If Argentina fall behind and need someone to change the game, the question is whether Messi at 38 can still do that on the biggest stage he has ever played on.

He has done it before. Multiple times. That does not make it predictable. It makes tonight worth watching.